Tom Duane Facebook ad: “THE LAY OF THE LAND: THREE SCENARIOS FOR…”

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THE LAY OF THE LAND: THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE (The First of Two Posts On This Topic--Stay Tuned!) Hey, Everyone. Now, I know I tend to focus on the optimistic potentialities of our current predicament(s) as much as possible–after all, my drag name is Pollyanna. The truth is, we have to keep hoping to keep going. So what I’m sharing today is uncomfortable for me, to be honest, because I don’t want to be a doomsayer. However, I think a clear-eyed assessment, even if it tends negative, can keep us from becoming numbed to the ongoing assault on our rights, our collective health, and our precious environment. To that end, presented below is an *integrated, unsweetened, life-and-death version* of the three most probable outcomes of the converging crises we face. I’m including *a Prep / Help / Hope matrix* so you can see exactly where your personal agency, power, and strength lie within each scenario—because I’m an optimistic realist. Alas, my friends, I have to stymie my tendency toward using humor in the face of adversity (no promises, best efforts). There’s nothing funny about what we are already experiencing—and the high likeliness of exponential acceleration of all our converging crises. I’m grounding this in the best available global risk research—including the World Economic Forum’s polycrisis analysis, Cambridge’s polycrisis theory, and the Royal Society’s work on systemic risk and resilience. I guess you could call my heretofore sublimated alter ego Polly Crisis (I couldn’t resist). I’m also integrating what UN agencies, WHO, global health security researchers, and democratic-governance watchdogs have repeatedly warned: *the world’s health systems, democratic institutions, and climate stability are all weakening at the same time*, and the United States is both a driver and a casualty of that decline. This is the clearest, most honest map I can give you. It’s not pretty. Despite my documented loquacity, I’ve always been plainspoken–some would say blunt–about the things that matter most. Lastly, I want to share with you that I’ve been working on this for a few weeks. I’m a little scared to publish this online. But here we go. ***THE THREE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOMES OF THE US & GLOBAL TRAJECTORY*** These are not mutually exclusive. They *stack*. They reinforce each other. And they are already underway. SCENARIO #1: THE LONG “POLYCRISIS”: A WORLD THAT NEVER FULLY RECOVERS FROM ANYTHING -Plainspoken Truth- We enter a decades-long era where crises don’t end–they just keep piling up. Climate disasters, wars, pandemics, economic shocks, supply-chain failures, and political instability become *permanent features*, not exceptions. This is the world that the aforementioned experts all describe: *a system where every shock makes the next one worse*. Our Health: -Global public health funding continues to shrink -WHO coordination weakens as major powers (like us!) pull back. -USAID-style programs are cut significantly or completely politicized. -Vaccine R&D slows; surveillance gaps widen. -Long COVID, mental health collapse, and chronic disease quietly erode national capacity. -The next pathogen spreads faster because trust is lower and systems are weaker. **Why I’m convinced this is the most likely scenario**: Because it doesn’t require a dramatic collapse–just *continuation of current trends*. Can we stop all this? Can we even slow it down? PREP: -Build local resilience: food, water, energy, medicine, communications. Start with your own prep, then expand if you can to the wider world. Maybe a few of your neighbors. Maybe the most vulnerable. -Strengthen your personal and community health readiness: masks, filters, first-aid, mutual-aid networks. -Learn how to verify information and avoid panic-driven misinformation. I promise to be a source of accurate information. HELP: -Support local clinics, public health organizations and institutions, and community health providers and responders. -Volunteer in food distribution, health outreach, and inevitably, disaster response when it’s needed. -Help neighbors prepare for heat waves, storms, outages, and the next pandemic disease (Ebola doesn’t just currently threaten Africa, it’s knocking at our door as we speak). Let’s dare to do now what we can to ameliorate the next AIDS crisis (about 50 million worldwide deaths) or COVID-19 debacle: 7.1 million *documented* deaths worldwide. Up to 20 million estimated deaths globally. HOPE: -Focus on meaningful, achievable “containable” victories: a safer block, a prepared school, a resilient neighborhood. -Hope becomes discipline: the belief that small buffers prevent mass suffering. For example, during the early days of AIDS, many people (special shout out to lesbians!) became ad hoc “nurses” when few others were willing to help. They provided comfort and advocacy when AIDS was akin to leprosy. SCENARIO #2: NORMALIZED AUTHORITARIANISM: DEMOCRACY IN FORM, NOT IN SUBSTANCE -Plainspoken Truth- Historically, Democracy doesn’t usually die in a coup. It dies in *slow motion*–through abuse of the courts and legislature, use of propaganda, and the stoking of fear and distrust. We’re well into that already. Blatant violations of the Constitution, human rights, and geopolitical norms. UN agreements and international treaties—all unraveling. Why would anyone think it’ll just stay this way, and not keep getting worse, when they show every sign of continuing their destructive project? They’re nowhere close to bottoming out, to use a recovery term. Watchdogs like Freedom House, UN human-rights bodies, and global media have documented a *20-year democratic recession*. The US is not immune; it is part of the trend–just look at our foreign policy. And we’re exacerbating the trend by supporting undemocratic regimes around the world by providing weapons and seemingly unlimited funds (when the line item is war). What this looks like: -Elections still happen (I hope, but there are people I trust, including my own staff, who believe we won’t even have midterm elections) while fairness and trust keep eroding due to attacks on our voting rights. The cynicism of the electorate grows, evident in high disapproval ratings of elected officials (including many Democrats!). MORE TO COME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS POST! #PrepHelpHope

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Tom Duane

Advocate/Activist/Teacher; fmr. NYS Sen. & NYC CM; openly HIV+; always Left&Queer; Fairness Matters!